Before the Lighthouse Falls
The world grows ever more chaotic and unpredictable, prompting these reflections in a personal essay.
The lighthouse, symbolizing the democratic, free, and egalitarian value system championed by Europe and North America since World War II, has illuminated global order for over seventy years. Yet, that light is now fading. This essay discusses the world, China, and AI, seeking to explore the crises and opportunities within this era’s turning point.
On the World Over the past seventy-odd years, human history witnessed a unique golden age. In Europe and North America, human society largely achieved, for the first time, a universalized peace, freedom, equality, and security. People broadly enjoyed freedom from arbitrary domination by power, making these regions the envy of the world. But from a historical perspective, this is merely a brief and particularly exceptional period. Its core essence stems from the universalist legacy of Christianity, driven by the social realities of the time: post-war Europe’s soul-searing Never Again reflection on two world wars, and the strategic naivety of Americans in the Wilsonian mold—what I desire, I should bestow upon others. Undeniably, this was a beautiful version of human civilization and values.
Over seventy years, though people often mock the naivety of the civilized lighthouse with their words, their actions remain strikingly honest when it matters most. The inherent flaw of the Wilsonian system lies in this: just as the universe tends toward entropy, this exceptional golden age of mass democracy is itself prone to desertification. A cup of hot water and a cup of cold water, once mixed, naturally become lukewarm. Without an external force, two cups of lukewarm water won’t spontaneously revert to one hot and one cold. For the past seventy years, America has been that external force.
Now, at the edge of this era’s curtain call, two unknowns linger: Will America’s internal globalists truly be willing to let go, allowing the lighthouse to collapse and retreating to an “American island” way of life, as evidenced by the recent rise of isolationism? And will Europe move toward federalization, becoming the next Constantinople to the globalized modern republican Rome—a daunting prospect, given that even something as basic as military equipment standards encompasses over 150 variations across Europe? History never cares about good guys or bad guys; those are just entertainment tales spun by mass media. History is about trade-offs, and beneath its currents, it all depends on your position and choices at the time, whether individual or collective. Perhaps, for many, the lighthouse’s fall means the world will no longer have that sanctuary—mocked outwardly, affirmed inwardly. Across the globe, nowhere will again offer, almost for free, that smug sense of inner security we once took for granted.
On China Chinese society, constrained by its own historical stage of development, chose to pursue a Hobbesian system after completing its first comprehensive industrialization—sovereignty supreme, the state supreme, with absolute national authority as the only reliable guarantor of personal security. People widely believe that “do not impose on others what you do not desire” is the most pragmatic and supreme moral standard. In recent years, China has gradually moved toward great imperial revival amid self-imposed tensions. These tensions stem from the internal friction of its contradictory yet diverse value system—Confucian benevolence, socialist equality, and the individualism of a market economy clashing with one another—along with a touch of unease about its true strength.
Ultimately, if the lighthouse’s collapse becomes reality, Chinese society will face a sweeping movement to reshape its values entirely. At that point, rebuilding a Chinese empire may become the most dominant trend—judging by the widely spreading sentiments of patriotism, nationalism, and vengefulness in recent years. The empire’s glory and aegis can bring a sense of pride and a protective shield to its subjects, yet it also means burdens and responsibilities. From historical experience, an empire is an order-consuming social structure, dependent on constant expansion and the depletion of frontier resources to sustain itself, always subject to cyclical rise and fall. China’s over 2,000 years of history, marked by recurring dynastic cycles, illustrate this well. Within an empire, beyond the imperial capital, all is frontier. Moreover, the imperial path means the same real dilemmas faced by Japan’s Showa-era empire last century now confront China: southward, northward, or both? Whichever choice it makes, China must find a balance among expansion, domestic governance, and diplomacy to avoid the repeated reenactment of historical tragedies.
On AI At present, AI’s enhancement of productivity and efficiency has demonstrated a tenfold, even hundredfold, leap. Perhaps we won’t need to wait for AI to rebel and destroy humanity; the sheer volume of people losing their livelihoods and income due to AI’s widespread adoption might suffice. Moreover, since this all happens in such a short span—unlike past technological revolutions, which allowed at least one generation, if not more, to buffer and digest the change—AI’s rapid deployment could lead to widespread unemployment and disorder within just 5-10 years, a harsh reality where society has no time to adapt and industries no time to transform. The International Labour Organization predicts that within a decade, 20% of global jobs may be displaced—frankly, I think the ILO vastly underestimates this figure, as AI is already showing its might in nearly every field.
As it stands, slowing AI’s development and application clearly isn’t feasible. Handing out money to every unemployed person may also be beyond the means of many places. So, will the world turn to war, plundering each other’s resources and eliminating surplus populations to restart social and economic cycles—as suggested by the current tensions in great-power rivalries? Or will it pursue interstellar migration and development to create new living spaces—as SpaceX’s starship program attempts, though technology and funding remain challenges? Facing such a future trend, how should society decide, and how can individuals adapt and survive? Interplay and Outlook
The lighthouse’s collapse, China’s imperial path, and AI’s impact are interwoven—beneath the currents of history, heroes are always rare exceptions. Countless individuals and collectives must ponder their positions and choices, seeking a way to survive in the oncoming new era.
February 23, 2025 WX